Longer Drug Review Time Means Fewer Approvals: CBO

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says a nine-month increase in FDA review times for NDAs would reduce the number of FDA-approved drugs in the first year following the increase. The CBO analysis was in response to a request from Democratic leaders of four House and Senate committees with FDA oversight.

“In addition to the initial delay,” CBO says, “the increase in review times would reduce the number of such approvals by raising the cost to develop new drugs.”

CBO says it estimates that a nine-month increase in FDA review times would result in three fewer drugs entering the market in the first decade after the increase and 10 fewer drugs in both the second and third decades. “CBO also expects that FDA would issue fewer supplemental approvals for drugs already on the market because of the increase in costs, since approving new uses follows a regulatory process that is similar to that for new drugs,” the response says.

The agency notes that an increase in review times would probably affect drug development in ways that it did not assess. “Increases in FDA review times effectively reduce the period during which a drug manufacturer has exclusive rights to sell a drug, thereby lowering expected revenues,” it says. CBO did not assess the effects of that decrease in expected revenue of new drug development. The agency also did not assess the effects of other changes in the behavior of drug companies in response to longer review times, such as changes in the types of drugs selected for development. Finally, CBO’s analysis did not account for any changes in FDA processes or practices that might result from increased review times.

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